The $3 Million Illusion
A business is only worth $3 million if someone actually pays you $3 million for it.
Carlos first heard the $3 million number from a business broker at a trade show. Revenue of $2.1 million, owner's discretionary earnings around $650K, a multiple of 4.5x — that gets you roughly $3 million. Carlos went home feeling wealthy. Then he started digging.
Business valuations aren't like home appraisals. They shift dramatically based on who's buying, how the deal is structured, and how dependent the business is on the owner. A strategic buyer might pay a premium for the customer list and workforce. A financial buyer would discount heavily for owner-dependence risk. And if Carlos sells to Miguel or employees, the price is often lower because the financing comes from the business itself.
The broker also pointed out uncomfortable truths: the books were clean but not audited. Several key customer relationships were handshake deals tied to Carlos personally. And the company's largest commercial contract had a change-of-ownership termination clause. That $3 million number was a ceiling, not a floor.
| Exit Route | Likely Valuation | Timeline | Tax Complexity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strategic Sale (Competitor) | $2.8M-$3.4M | 6-12 months | Moderate |
| ESOP (Employee Buyout) | $2.5M-$3.0M | 12-24 months | High (but tax advantages) |
| Family Transfer (Miguel) | $1.8M-$2.5M | 2-5 years | High |
| Management Buyout | $2.2M-$2.8M | 12-18 months | Moderate |
Owner Dependence Is a Valuation Killer
Buyers discount heavily when the owner is the primary relationship holder, decision maker, and brand. Every month Carlos spends reducing his involvement before a sale can add tens of thousands to the final price.
The Reality Check
The number Carlos carries in his head may be $800K to $1.2M higher than what he'd actually net after taxes, fees, and deal adjustments.